March 15, 2022
Two years into COVID-19, where do we go from here
By Irwin Redlener and Sean Hansen
Precisely two years ago last week, then-Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency in New York as it quickly became clear that the state had become the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Days later, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic — with little knowledge about the long-term impacts we might face. Fast forward to today, and it’s difficult to fathom just how far we’ve come: over 963,000 U.S. Covid deaths, 79 million confirmed cases, and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.
As the nature of COVID-19 has evolved, so too has our understanding of what it means to live through a deadly pandemic.
Read more in the State of the Planet
January 18, 2022
When do we get back to normal and other common COVID-19 questions
By Irwin Redlener
Having trouble keeping up with pandemic news? You’re in good company. Most of us are a bit overwhelmed by the proverbial fire hose of new data, opinions and speculation that’s always headed our way. As I’ve spoken with family, friends and many neighbors for almost two years about what’s happening with this vicious SARS-CoV-2 virus, the most common question is: When do we get back to normal?
That question is particularly fraught, in part because we don’t share a common sense of what a post-pandemic “normal” would actually look like. And a painful truth is that even the experts are mostly guessing when they speculate about when we’ll be done with all of this pandemic turmoil. Personally, I’d even be satisfied if we get to a state where the virus becomes endemic; just part of life. Let’s do a lightning round to keep current with the latest Covid-19 news.
Read More in West Side Rag
January 4, 2022
There are legitimate reasons to be hopeful for 2022
So here we go. Out with 2021, in with 2022. It’s tough to know where to start saying good riddance to a pretty rough year, as years go.
So where are we and what can we expect? Just remember that whatever an expert says or whatever guidelines are proposed by the government about COVID-19 today, recommendations could change — and probably will change — as new data and insights become available.
That said, I really do believe that for those who are fully vaccinated, there are legitimate reasons to be hopeful that the 2022 version of the COVID-19 pandemic will be less unsettling, less dangerous than what we went through last year. I say this well aware that COVID-19 is a wily virus fully capable of changing shape (mutating) and altering its impact on human health.
December 6, 2021
Covid-19 treatment pills are here, but they are no replacement for vaccines.
I wanted to share my most recent piece in NBC News Think, which discusses how the new Covid-19 pills could help save lives just in time for the alarming Omicron variant. With Merck’s treatment receiving a favorable recommendation by the FDA advisory committee, Pfizer’s Covid-19 pill is expected to be reviewed by the agency imminently as well.
But even so, these new treatments present a potential downside: discouraging people from getting vaccinated. While they can be – and should be – an important tool in the toolkit for controlling the pandemic, the focus must remain on prevention. And that means vaccines.
Read More in NBC News Think
July 29, 2021
Wildfires are decimating the West and choking the East — it’s time for solutions
There is another public health threat we’re facing: wildfires. As climate change contributes to hotter and drier summers throughout the western United States, we’re seeing increasingly severe blazes each year. But the impacts of wildfires go far beyond the areas out west that are burning: the deadly heatwaves and toxic smoke are being felt across the country, exacerbating chronic health conditions for millions of Americans.
As we struggle to combat another deadly wave of the pandemic due to the delta variant, we can’t lose sight of the immense threat posed by climate change and severe weather. There are tangible actions we can be taking to help our communities adapt to the changing climate, and lessen the devastating wrought by wildfires for years to come.
Read More in The Hill
July 4, 2021
Op-Ed: South Florida collapse shows infrastructure is a persistent threat to public health
COVID-19 is not the only disaster we need to manage. Infrastructure failures and climate change are extreme public health threats. The deadly building collapse in South Florida is a searing reminder that fragile infrastructure can have tragic public health consequences.
June 17, 2021
Pandemic Resource and Response Initiative & Cher Announce Donation of Mobile Covid-19 Testing and Vaccination Clinic
The gift from CherCares Pandemic Resource and Response Fund in partnership with Columbia University’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness will bring mobile testing and vaccinations to young people and families in neighborhoods with the greatest need.
Learn More | Watch and Interview with Cher and Dr. Redlener on MSNBC
May 24, 2021
Here’s How to Clear Up the CDC’s Communications Confusion
Last week’s guidance from the CDC for vaccinated individuals is based on strong scientific evidence – but it has also led to confusion for businesses, state and local policymakers, and individuals.
Adding to this public confusion is the fact that whatever federal agencies or public health leaders say, states actually have the ultimate authority over local guidelines. Unfortunately, private businesses—as well as health officials and others at the state and local level—were largely caught off-guard by the new policy from the CDC. And the question remains: in addition to freedom for those who are vaccinated, will the new federal guidance encourage millions of unvaccinated individuals to stop wearing masks or disregard state policies?
As vaccinated Americans begin to resume some degree of normalcy, how will we know, for instance, if the person sitting next to us in a theater, sports arena, or restaurant is actually vaccinated—or just a “resistor” anxious to return to normal?
And will the CDC guidelines actually help Americans get back to the activities they missed most? Read More
May 20, 2021
Fourteen months into the Covid-19 pandemic, what do we miss the most (and how policymakers can help).
Our latest polling brief on what activities Americans are most looking forward to resuming as we move closer to a “new normal.” The CDC’s latest guidance for vaccinated individuals is a welcome change for many Americans that are eager for a degree of normalcy more than fourteen months into the pandemic. But it raises significant questions with respect to how – and how soon – these aspirations will be realized.
We partnered with the Marist Institute for Public Opinion to survey 1,266 U.S. adults from across the country to better understand exactly what we miss the most. The survey found three consistent areas that the general public seemed most intent on returning to:
Nearly one in three Americans (31%) responded that they most miss large in-person events. But the survey also highlighted some significant differences in what Americans most looked forward to when grouped by political affiliation, age, and gender.
As policymakers at the federal, state, and local levels – as well as decision-makers in the private sector – piece together new policies in line with guidance from the CDC, understanding what Americans most want will be crucial to safely navigate this uncertain, highly dynamic time of transition.
Read the report, its recommendations, and survey data here.
April 14, 2021
Despite July 4 timeline, the US is a long way from herd immunity
As the rate of vaccinations continues at a record pace, Americans are increasingly emerging from their long and dark winter hibernation with a sense of cautious optimism and hope for a more ‘normal’ summer.
There are in fact signs of hope. More than one-third of U.S adults have now received at least one dose of the vaccine, marking a significant milestone on the march towards herd immunity. And with more than 78 percent of people over the age of 65 vaccinated (with at least one dose), mortality rates have plunged since their January high.
Unfortunately, there are also reasons for concern.
Read why. Read more in The Hill
March 12, 2021
Opinion: Reckless governors are threatening COVID-19 progress
Although we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel, we aren’t there yet. Reckless and premature rollbacks in states like Texas and Mississippi — and soon to be others — threaten to erode the hard-won progress we’ve made and create pockets of potential new infections. As we face the growing threat of alarming virus variants, the best tools we still have in the race to vaccinate a majority of Americans continue to be mask-wearing and physical distancing.
Here’s why. Read more in The Hill
March 2, 2021
Opinion: Vaccinating educators now is key to reopening schools
The massive pandemic-related disruption of K-12 education is the greatest educational challenge in modern American history. Every day that children are denied regular, full-day school adds to the remediation crisis we’ll inevitably face once educational normalcy is reestablished. Vaccinating educators now is key to reopening schools.
Read more in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
February 18, 2021
COVID recovery must prioritize the nation’s youth – Dr. Redlener & Jeff Schlegelmilch discuss COVID-19 and children and propose five child-centric recovery objectives
By Irwin Redlener and Jeff Schlegelmilch
The COVID-19 pandemic, like virtually every other major disaster, has had a particularly outsized impact on children.
While children have been less susceptible to contracting COVID-19 and especially its more severe manifestations than adults, they can, in fact, get very sick. While very few COVID-19 fatalities have been reported in children, about 3 million have been infected, representing between one and three percent of all hospitalizations.
Additionally, more than one thousand children under the age of 10 have developed a COVID-19 related illness cause called Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children. Children can also be carriers of the virus and as such, are capable of transmitting to older, high-risk adults. Psychological and behavioral conditions are also increasingly prevalent in younger people.
But it is well beyond the direct health impacts of COVID-19 that create a high level of concern for children who are part of the pandemic generation.
Read more in The Hill Opinion
December 16, 2020
Biden Must Be Ready for Disaster. We Mean That Literally.
By Irwin Redlener, Jeff Schlegelmilch, and Sean Hansen
The incoming Biden-Harris administration will have a long list of disaster-related issues to contend with—and we don’t just mean the urgent necessity to combat the still-raging COVID-19 pandemic.
When Hurricane Iota made landfall in northeastern Nicaragua as a Category 4 storm last month, it became the 30th named storm this year alone—setting a record high for a year also marked by some of the worst wildfires ever seen, as well as a plethora of climate change-related storms, severe droughts, and a variety of catastrophic events across the planet. By September, the U.S. alone had already counted 16 separate billion-dollar climate-related storms.
It’s worth recalling, too, that until the pandemic took hold, the prevailing sense may have been that disasters were indeed more frequent and more severe—but invariably local. It was the Gulf or the U.S. West Coast that took the hit. That was then.
The COVID-19 pandemic, in stark contrast, is, by definition ubiquitous, rising and falling in waves. It’s up in one region, down in another, and surges again in a place it had previously laid low—behaving much like a lethal game of geographic whack-a-mole.
So when Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are finally sworn on Jan. 20, they’ll face the most complex set of disaster challenges in modern history. The pandemic will be front and center, of course, but also demanding attention will be the need to mitigate climate change—the underlying driver responsible for the growing severity and frequency of natural disasters. At the same time there is a need to develop and institutionalize protocols for handling overlapping catastrophic events.
Given these realities, here’s how three key issues that will likely play out within President Biden’s broader “disaster agenda”…
Read More in The Daily Beast
November 16, 2020
Thanksgiving 2020 will surely be like no other in U.S. history. We are drifting increasingly into unprecedented territory as Covid-19 is raging out of control. The U.S. will certainly soon see a new, frightening milestone of 200,000 cases every day. Hospitalizations are increasing at a rapid pace, with many states experiencing severe, acute shortages of medical personnel.
But, eventually, if we follow the new rules, get lucky with safe, effective vaccines and develop medications that can tamp down Covid-19 symptoms so we don’t need to be treated in a hospital, there is good reason to be optimistic about returning to normal traditions for Thanksgiving 2021. But for now, we are literally endangering our communities and our loved ones by pretending that we can hold a traditional Thanksgiving celebration in 2020. We just can’t.
That said, there’s still a lot we can do to enjoy this holiday season. A little creative planning around sharing virtual time with loved ones, cheering each other online, celebrating TG4L prior to the traditional date and finding ways to share the experience with laughter and affectionate connections can make a big difference – without endangering each other, especially those of us who may be particularly vulnerable to getting seriously ill from the Coronavirus.
Here are some guidelines culled from experts, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
October 22, 2020
Dr. Irwin Redlener, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Ph.D., Sean Hansen, MPA, and Dr. Nathaniel Hupert, published a report on the number of avoidable deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. The report found that 130,000 – 210,000 COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented had the Trump Administration enacted preventative measures early in the pandemic, like a national mask mandate, sufficient COVID-19 testing capability, and earlier lockdowns.
<strong><a href=”https://bit.ly/3jiFDuB” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>Click here to read the full report:</a> </strong>“130,000 – 210,000 Avoidable COVID-19 Deaths – And Counting In The U.S.”
October 13, 2020
The Future of Us: What the Dreams of Children Mean for Twenty-First-Century America
Raymond is a talented young artist who carries his work from a homeless shelter to homeless shelter in a tattered bag but has never even been inside a museum. Inadequate education, barriers to health care, and crushing poverty make it overwhelmingly difficult for many children to realize their dreams. Finding ways to alter these trajectories is serious, grown-up business, and it’s time for us to act. And our future depends on us getting this right.
In The Future of Us: What the Dreams of Children Mean for Twenty-First-Century America, Dr. Redlener examines our nation’s health care safety nets and special programs that are designed to protect and nurture our most vulnerable kids, but that too often fail to do so. With a new preface and afterword, he addresses how the adversities many children face, including vulnerability to the deadly coronavirus pandemic thwart the aspirations of children like Raymond, robbing them of their ability to reach their own potential and threatening America’s future.
September 1, 2020
Town Hall: Is it okay to send my child to school during Covid-19?
The most agonizing decision to be made since the Covid-19 pandemic began: Is it okay to send my child to school? Or, if your child started school, what questions should you be asking?
Conference Host: Irwin Redlener Conference Moderator: Jeffrey Schlegelmilch
Speakers:
By Irwin Redlener, MD and Karen Redlener, MS 8/26/2020
BACK TO SCHOOL: CAN WE AVOID A COVID-19 DISASTER? AN ADVISORY FOR POLICY MAKERS, EDUCATORS AND PARENTS The Most Agonizing Decisions to be Made Since the Pandemic Began, What We Need to Know
The Covid-19 pandemic has raised profound questions for our society, but none more difficult and agonizing for parents: Is it safe for my child to be in school? In this new Covid-19 era, here is what you need to know and think about – and what questions you need to be asking.
It is important to remember that, as opposed to what we thought months ago, children can carry the Coronavirus, infect others and become ill from Covid-19, although far less frequently and generally less severely than adults.
Keep in mind, too, that new developments, including advances in testing, new medications, changes in community transmission of the virus, and an effective vaccine may change everything. The considerations presented are for context and the recommendations that follow are what we believe are in line with best practices as of late summer 2020. That said, we shouldn’t be surprised if new insights demand changes to how we respond to the pandemic.
By Irwin Redlener 5/4/2020
NEW RATIONALE FOR SARS-C0V-2 TESTING?
HOW AND WHEN TO SAFELY REOPEN AMERICA’S BUSINESSES:
OUR MOST CRITICAL QUESTION IN MAY 2020
The U.S. is on the verge of a mass reopening of businesses in at least 31 states.
This mad rush is fraught with the danger of new, uncontrollable surges of COVID-19. If the reopening is not done properly, there could well be tens of thousands of potentially avoidable pandemic deaths throughout the nation.
That’s because we are not even close to having sufficiently widespread, rapid and reliable tests available to check for SARS-CoV-2 virus – or immunity to COVID-19. As of early May, less than 2% of the American public has been tested for the virus. As described in our recent report, Work In the Time of Pandemic, the absence of ubiquitous testing prior to reopening businesses puts every American community at unacceptable risk.
As most of us understand, the need to test for the virus that’s responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic has been an essential objective from at least mid-January. That’s when it was becoming clear that we were well on our way to a major global problem with a novel virus that had arisen in China and was spreading rapidly with highly lethal consequences for humans.
In the U.S. we remain in an inexplicably, sputtering process of perfecting two general kinds of tests: the first (PCR or antigen tests) is to identify the actual presence of the virus in a person at the time of the test; and the second (serology) is to help establish if a person has developed antibodies and, presumably, immunity as a result of a previous infection.
Strikingly, the FDA has been working with nearly 400 diagnostic test developers and many serology test developers as well. All are seeking – some have obtained – Emergency Use Authorizations (EAU) to allow such tests to be used for clinical or research purposes prior to fully establishing reliability. A vast number of these tests are felt to have high levels of false positive or false negatives. Either of those results are misleading and/ or dangerous.
At some future point, multiple commissions and organizations will do analyses and post-mortems on what went wrong with the nation’s ability to competently develop a large-scale, effective testing program.
That said, here’s why we have long needed a massive testing capacity:
Pre-April 27:
Post-April 27
Now what?
[Read Dr. Redlener’s letter urging our Nation’s leaders to carefully consider how and when to re-open the economy. This letter was sent to the Senators, Representatives, Governors across the US.]
By Irwin Redlener 4/9/2020
“A 102-Year-Old Lesson for Fighting COVID-19: How Soon We Forget”
In 1918, when the so-called Spanish Flu was raging (it was only first reported by Spanish journalists, although it likely began elsewhere), an incredibly powerful lesson was learned through a natural experiment that involved two major American cities. Remember that this deadly virus killed at least 50 million people world-wide and nearly 700,000 Americans. Although these were days long before modern medicine and vaccines, ICUs, and mechanical ventilators, it’s worth revisiting some of those lessons.
In Philadelphia, the city’s response mirrored much of the Trump Administration’s early leisurely tone: authorities downplayed the significance of the threat after the first case was reported on September 17, 1918, and large events weren’t canceled. Notably, the city’s liberty parade – which drew 200,000 Philadelphians to crowded city streets – took place eleven days later on Sept. 28th. By the time social distancing measures and school and restaurant closures were implemented (by October 3rd), it was too late. The virus had spread, overwhelming the city’s public health capacity, law enforcement, and causing the death total to surge to over 17,500 in just six months.
But just several hundred miles away in St. Louis, an entirely different story was playing out. With the first cases of influenza reported on October 5th, the city was shut down by October 7th. Schools, playgrounds, and churches were shuttered, while public gatherings of over 20 people were prohibited. The intervention worked: per capita influenza deaths in St. Louis (347 deaths/100,000 people) were less than half than those of Philadelphia (719/100,000).
Juxtaposing the response of the two cities highlights how quick public health responses can save countless lives. Visualizing the cases of Philadelphia and St. Louis also highlights exactly the notion of ‘flattening the curve.’ While neither city was able to prevent the spread of influenza, St. Louis prevented a spike in the death rate of the virus by mitigation efforts that prevented overwhelming the city’s healthcare system.
Of course, the Spanish flu of 1918 was entirely different from today’s novel coronavirus. But much of the policy prescriptions remain true: social distancing and quarantines can, and do, have a significant effect, if implemented and adopted rapidly, and maintained for the duration of the outbreak.
Source: Richard J. Hatchett, Carter E. Mecher, and Marc Lipsitch, “Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic.” Princeton University, 2007. https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582
By Irwin Redlener 3/16/2020
Nation should prepare for more draconian strategies to combat COVID-19 Redlener says: more aggressive policies are called for but are unconscionably, inexplicability late “We will be Italy”, as U.S. hospitals face unmanageable crisis Trump’s “happy talk” and incompetence have endangered America.
Dr. Redlener comments on the current state of U.S. efforts to manage raging outbreak of the pandemic across the U.S.
By Irwin Redlener 2/19/2020
Coronavirus has killed more than 2,000 people. All but six of them were in mainland China. The virus, officially called COVID-19, has infected more than 75,000 people. There are more than a thousand cases outside China.
Singapore’s Ministry of Health today reported three new cases of the COVID-19, bringing the nationwide total to 84 confirmed cases. The arrival this week of 14 infected American evacuees from a cruise ship in Japan brought the total number of cases in the United States to at least 29 people.
