The NCDP U.S. Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections project provides an interactive map-based tool, with a downloadable dataset, to explore county-level future natural hazard projections for Wildfires, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes), Tornadoes, and Sea Level Rise under one or more climate change scenarios in the United States. This tool provides a new dimension of hazard data to supplement NCDPs Natural Hazards Index v2.0.
Traditional approaches to hazard-specific preparedness, particularly weather-related physical hazards, are often based on modeled or historical event data, which anticipate similar future trends. However, a new preparedness paradigm is necessary to adequately prepare, adapt, and mitigate the impacts of a changing climate and the interaction with existing hazards. The increase in the number of weather-related disasters and their associated costs has consistently risen over time (see NOAA graphic below), signaling that traditional models and approaches are insufficient on their own to anticipate future potential events and protect the people and communities that may experience differential risk between now and the end of the century. Many mental models of climate change assume equal and increasing risk over time, but the complexity of climate change models and their associated scenarios may differ from what we imagine. This tool helps visualize those patterns and trends from now to the end of the century based on the best currently available data and methodological approaches.
To meet this critical information gap, NCDP developed the NCDP U.S. Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections map application, which supplements its sister tool, the Natural Hazards Index v2.0. This new tool is a collaborative effort between multiple academic and public institutions that bring together the most up-to-date science to anticipate future hazards for Wildfires, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes), Tornadoes, and Sea Level Rise. It visualizes mid- and end-century hazard indicator estimates under one or more climate change scenarios (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) and 5 (SSP5)), allowing users to compare each time period and scenario to a historical baseline and to see the anticipated direction and magnitude of change for each hazard.
This tool was designed with a diverse range of end-users in mind. As such, best efforts were made to include content and visualizations for households, communities, public health and emergency management practitioners, policy makers, advocacy organizations, and academics. For those interested in developing or updating a household emergency plan, this tool may be used in conjunction with NCDP’s Preparedness Wizard, available in English and Spanish.
It is recommended to view the application in full-screen mode, which is accessible here: Map Application. Note that this application is not fully optimized for mobile viewing. For the best experience, please view on a desktop monitor.
These maps provide future hazard projections for four natural hazards at the county level in the United States. It’s worth noting that hazards exist whether they occur in a populated area or not. For instance, this tool was developed to complement the Natural Hazards Index v2.0 (NHI), which provides hazard indicators for 14 natural hazards in the United States. Risk maps, in comparison, are a product of at least hazard and exposure. Some risk maps, such as FEMA’s National Risk Index, also include social vulnerability, the social factors that may disproportionately affect certain populations, and resilience, a community’s capacity to respond to a disaster. Interpretation of NCDP’s Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections should be made with this distinction in mind. End-users are encouraged to add their own exposure, vulnerability, or resilience data to gain a comprehensive understanding of the full potential impact.
Each hazard section includes a description of the hazard, how climate change may interact with the hazard, the data sources, indicators, climate models, and time periods utilized, and finally, the use, interpretation, and limitations of the datasets. Each hazard includes current and future projections based on one or more climate change scenarios.
In addition to current and future hazard maps, the application includes maps with comparisons between the current hazard (baseline historical data) and future projections (either midcentury, end of century or both), depicting the percentage change in the level of hazard. The application also includes bivariate (i.e., visualization of two indicators) maps that compare the baseline hazard data to the future percentage change data, allowing the user to differentiate areas with the greatest increase or decrease over time, compared to the baseline hazard level. Each layer includes both a static bivariate map and an interactive one, allowing users to filter or highlight specific areas on the map according to their desired analysis. The purpose of these maps is to provide a practical tool to identify geographical areas within the United States that will face an increasing risk in the future and should prioritize hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.
The map application contains documentation that explains each data source, the value interpretation, and the layer sources, indicators, and geographic coverage.
The climate change projections included in the U.S. Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections map application draw from two iterations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP): CMIP6 for tornado and flood layers, and CMIP5 for the tropical cyclones and wildfire layers. CMIP5 model data (based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways) were utilized as input data where CMIP6 projections were not available.
The climate models used in CMIP, including both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs), simulate Earth’s climate by modeling interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. These models adjust for key environmental variables, such as greenhouse gas concentrations, solar radiation, aerosols, and land-use changes, to project how climate factors like temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme weather patterns might evolve (Boyles et al., 2024). GCM and ESM outputs inform the likelihood and intensity of environmental variables conducive to hazards such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and sea level rise or flooding. When paired with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which outline potential trajectories for human activity and policy, these models enable an assessment of how physical climate risks might develop under varying future scenarios. More details about how RCPs are incorporated into the SSP modeling process are explained in Sections 4 and 5 of the Climate Change Models within the Application.
If the application does not load below, or you would like to view it full screen, it may be accessed directly here: Map Application
This is a planning tool only and should not be used for response activities. It is recommended to consult with your local emergency management agency for more information on local disaster preparedness and mitigation activities. All datasets included in this map application have their limitations. As such, interpretation of the data should be only one piece of information to determine your risk, which may vary depending on local and regional mitigation and adaptation actions.
Citation: Sury, J. J., Hansen, S., Krasniqi, Q., Samur, A., & Schlegelmilch, J. (2025). U.S. Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections. National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University. https://doi.org/10.7916/e93y-fm30; https://ncdp.columbia.edu/us-natural-hazards-and-climate-change
Dataset Repository & Documentation: https://doi.org/10.7916/e93y-fm30
Project Homepage: https://ncdp.columbia.edu/us-natural-hazards-and-climate-change
Map Application: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/1c0de890d9ff4fe2b6088126ba1d3db5/
License: This work is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
Jonathan has over fifteen years of experience in qualitative and quantitative research with significant emphasis on disaster field research and study design, implementation, management, and data architecture and analysis. He contributes to a broad multi-method disaster research portfolio, including natural hazards mapping, rural preparedness, mental health and psychosocial support, community coalition building, and child-focused community resilience. He also has significant experience in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and their use in disaster preparedness and recovery, evaluating the unanticipated consequences of pandemic flu, determining racially and ethnically appropriate emergency messaging, and analyzing the long-term disaster resiliency and recovery issues of Hurricane Katrina, Superstorm Sandy, and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. He holds a master’s degree in public health from the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, where he is currently pursuing a doctorate of public health in Leadership in Global Health and Humanitarian Systems.
Sean Hansen is a Staff Associate III at the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, where he supports applied research efforts related to disaster preparedness, readiness, response, and recovery. In this capacity, he works closely with various stakeholders using mixed-methods research and providing technical expertise to identify areas of vulnerability and strategies for supporting resilient communities. Particular areas of interest include climate-linked disasters and various aspects of psychosocial support, food security, and social cohesion in affected communities.
Sean earned his Master of Public Administration in Development Practice from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, where he focused on humanitarian response, sustainable development, and disaster preparedness. Before joining NCDP, he worked in Washington, D.C., in policy and advocacy for a consortium of international development and humanitarian organizations. He is especially interested in the links between climate change, humanitarian crises, and conflict.
Qëndresa Krasniqi is a Staff Associate II at NCDP, where she supports research activities related to resilience building, COVID-19, and climate change. In this capacity, she will work on quantifying different elements of community resilience. Qëndresa earned her Masters in Public Administration in Development Practice from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, where she focused on social protection and social safety nets and the role of socio-economic and racial inequities on global food & agriculture systems, food security and access to health care services. Before joining NCDP, she taught Economics and worked in policy analysis and research with the IPCC, Health Care Without Harm and the European Stability Initiative (ESI). She is especially interested in incorporating the understanding of social vulnerabilities related to socio-economic and racial inequities in disaster preparedness and recovery.
Antonia Samur is a Senior Staff Associate I. Her role at NCDP includes conducting research and managing initiatives to support disaster planning and community resilience. Antonia currently manages a three-year capacity-building initiative for the child-care sector in Puerto Rico, aiming to enhance institutional preparedness to meet the needs of children in disasters. Under this initiative, she led the development of a training curriculum and delivered training. She also teaches about community engagement in disaster management in the MA in Climate and Society at the Columbia Climate School.
Before NCDP, Antonia worked for the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), where she led a global sustainable development education program, and for the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), where she conducted research and policy analysis on social and economic development issues, including childhood poverty and sustainable development in Latin America.
She holds a dual Master’s degree in International Affairs from the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University and the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po. She earned a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Chile.
Antonia is keenly interested in climate change adaptation, community engagement, participatory planning and public policy, applied research, and education.
Jeff Schlegelmilch is the Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School, as well as the Director of Executive Education and Non-Degree Programs for the Columbia Climate School. He is also an Associate Professor for Professional Practice in Climate. His areas of expertise include public health preparedness, community resilience, and the integration of private and public sector capabilities.
In addition to his work at Columbia, he also served as an advisor to private sector organizations on topics related to grid resilience planning and advised leaders on preparedness systems and policy at all levels of government. He is an opinion contributor with The Hill and is frequently called upon as an expert for numerous media outlets. He is the author of Rethinking Readiness: A Brief Guide to Twenty-First-Century Megadisasters and co-author of Catastrophic Incentives: Why Our Approaches To Disasters Keep Falling Short, both published by Columbia University Press.
We are grateful for the invaluable contribution from individual experts and their collaborators, without whom this product would not have been possible. We specifically thank:
Additional data analysis and technical support was provided by Greg Yetman and John Squires from the Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School.
This project was funded by a grant from AllianceBernstein | AB who supported the development of this project in addition to NCDPs Natural Hazards Index v2.0.
Read more about the new U.S. Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections in the State of the Planet blog.
Read more about how the Natural Hazards Index v2.0 helps communities prepare for natural hazards in the State of the Planet.
Learn more about the AllianceBernstein and Columbia Climate School’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness partnership.
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