The NCDP Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections project provides an interactive map-based tool, with a downloadable dataset, to explore county-level future natural hazard projections for Wildfires, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes), Tornadoes, and Sea Level Rise under one or more climate change scenarios in the United States. This tool provides a new dimension of hazard data to supplement NCDPs Natural Hazards Index v2.0.

Introduction and Background

Traditional approaches to hazard-specific preparedness, particularly weather-related physical hazards, are often based on modeled or historical event data, which anticipate similar future trends. However, a new preparedness paradigm is necessary to adequately prepare, adapt, and mitigate the impacts of a changing climate and the interaction with existing hazards. The increase in the number of weather-related disasters and their associated costs has consistently risen over time (see NOAA graphic below), signaling that traditional models and approaches are insufficient on their own to anticipate future potential events and protect the people and communities that may experience differential risk between now and the end of the century. Many mental models of climate change assume equal and increasing risk over time, but the complexity of climate change models and their associated scenarios may differ from what we imagine. This tool helps visualize those patterns and trends from now to the end of the century based on the best currently available data and methodological approaches.

Chart of Billion Dollar Disasters by Year

To meet this critical information gap, NCDP developed the NCDP Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections map application, which supplements its sister tool, the Natural Hazards Index v2.0. This new tool is a collaborative effort between multiple academic and public institutions that bring together the most up-to-date science to anticipate future hazards for Wildfires, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes), Tornadoes, and Sea Level Rise. Mid- and end-century hazard indicator estimates under one more climate change scenarios (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) and 5 (SSP5)) are visualized and presented in such a way to view each time period under available climate change scenarios compared to a baseline, and in what direction and magnitude each hazard is anticipated to change.

This tool was designed with a diverse range of end-users in mind. As such, best efforts were made to include content and visualizations for households, communities, public health and emergency management practitioners, policy makers, advocacy organizations, and academics. For those who are interested in developing or updating a household emergency plan, this tool may be used in conjunction with NCDP’s Preparedness Wizard, available in English and Spanish.

It is recommended to view the application in full-screen mode, which is accessible here: Map Application. Note that this application is not fully optimized for mobile viewing.

Use & Interpretation

These maps provide future hazard projections for four natural hazards at the county level in the United States. It’s worth noting that hazards exist whether they occur in a populated area or not. For instance, this tool was developed to complement the Natural Hazards Index v2.0 (NHI), which provides hazard indicators for 14 natural hazards in the United States. Risk maps, in comparison, are a product of at least hazard and exposure. While some risk maps, such as FEMA’s National Risk Index, also include social vulnerability, the social factors which may disproportionately affect certain populations, and resilience, a community’s capacity to respond to a disaster. Interpretation of NCDPs Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections should be made with this distinction in mind. End-users are encouraged to add their own exposure, vulnerability, or resilience data to gain a comprehensive understanding of the full potential impact.

Each hazard section includes a description of the hazard, how climate change may interact with the hazard, the data source, indicators, climate models, and time periods utilized, and finally the use, interpretation, and limitations of the dataset. Each hazard includes current and future projections based on one or more climate change scenarios.

In addition to current and future hazard maps, the application includes a map with a comparison between the current hazard (baseline historical data) and future projections (either midcentury, end of century or both), depicting the percentage change in the level of hazard. The application also includes bivariate (i.e., visualization of two indicators) maps that compare the baseline hazard data to the future percentage change data, allowing the user to differentiate areas with the greatest increase or decrease over time, compared to the level or hazard being experienced at baseline. Each layer includes both a static bivariate map and an interactive one, allowing users to filter or highlight specific areas on the map according to their desired analysis. The purpose of these maps is to provide a practical tool to identify geographical areas within the United States that will face an increasing risk in the future and should prioritize hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

The map application contains documentation that explains each data source, the value interpretation, and the layer sources, indicators, and geographic coverage. All efforts were made to include a full data set for the conterminous US, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. However, not all datasets have full coverage. The documentation contains a table with geographic coverage areas.

The climate change projections included in the Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections Application draw from two iterations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP): CMIP6 for tornado and flood layers, and CMIP5 for the tropical cyclones and wildfire layers. CMIP5 model data (presented as RCPs, or Representative Concentration Pathways) were utilized as input data where CMIP6 projections were not available.

The climate models used in CMIP, including both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs), simulate Earth’s climate by modeling interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. These models adjust for key environmental variables, such as greenhouse gas concentrations, solar radiation, aerosols, and land-use changes, to project how climate factors like temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme weather patterns might evolve (Boyles et al., 2024). GCM and ESM outputs inform the likelihood and intensity of environmental variables conducive to hazards such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and sea level rise or flooding. When paired with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which outline potential trajectories for human activity and policy, these models enable an assessment of how physical climate risks might develop under varying future scenarios. More details about how RCPs are incorporated into the SSP modeling process are explained in Sections 4 and 5 of the Climate Change Models within the Application.

Map Application

If the application does not load below, or you would like to view it full screen, it may be accessed directly here: Map Application

 

Disclaimers & Limitations

This is a planning tool only and should not be used for response activities. It is recommended to consult with your local emergency management agency for more information on local disaster preparedness and mitigation activities. All datasets included in this map application have their limitations. As such, interpretation of the data should be only one piece of information to determine your risk, which may vary depending on local and regional mitigation and adaptation actions.

Data Access & License

Dataset citation and data repository: Natural Hazards Climate Change Projections. (2025). National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University. https://doi.org/10.7916/e93y-fm30

Project Homepage: https://ncdp.columbia.edu/us-natural-hazards-and-climate-change

Map Application: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/1c0de890d9ff4fe2b6088126ba1d3db5/

License: This work is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International

Project Team

Jonathan Sury, MPH CPH

Senior Staff Associate III

Sean Hansen, MPA

Staff Associate III

Qëndresa Krasniqi, MPA

Staff Associate II

Antonia Samur, MIA

Senior Staff Associate

Jeff Schlegelmilch, MPH MBA

Director, National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Director of Executive Education and Non-Degree Programs, Columbia Climate School
Associate Professor of Professional Practice

Read More

Read more about how the Natural Hazards Index helps communities prepare for natural hazards, in the State of the Planet.

Learn more about the AllianceBernstein and Columbia Climate School’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness partnership.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful for the invaluable contribution from individual experts and their collaborators, without whom this product would not have been possible. We specifically thank:

Wildfires: Karin Riley and Scott Zimmer (Rocky Mountain Research Station, United States Forest Service (USFS))

Tropical cyclones: Simona Meiler (Stanford University), Chia-Ying Lee (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)

Sea Level Rise: David Betenbaugh (NOAA)

Tornados: Zoe Schroder (Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University), Tyler Fricker (University of Louisiana Monroe), Daniel Burow (Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University), and Kelsey Malloy (University of Delaware).

Additional data analysis and technical support was provided by Greg Yetman and John Squires from the Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School.

This project was funded by a grant from AllianceBernstein | AB who supported the development of this project and in addition to NCDPs Natural Hazards Index v2.0.

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