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The equatorial Pacific Ocean now reflects El Niño conditions. Forecasters expect it to keep building through the rest of 2026, most likely peaking this fall and winter. Unlike the hazards that arrive with little notice, a developing El Niño announces itself months ahead — and that lead time provides time for early action.

This briefing below explains what we are worried about and what we can do about it. The result is a reshuffled map of risk: heavier rain and flooding in some regions, drought in others, and downstream pressure on food production, water supplies, energy systems, and public health. These are tilts in the odds, not certainties — which is precisely what makes them useful for planning.