Impact Outlook: El Niño 2026–27 June 29, 2026 El Niño Is Here. Here’s Why That’s a Head Start, Not Just a Headline. The equatorial Pacific Ocean now reflects El Niño conditions. Forecasters expect it to keep building through the rest of 2026, most likely peaking this fall and winter. Unlike the hazards that arrive with little notice, a developing El Niño announces itself months ahead — and that lead time provides time for early action. The briefing below explains what we are worried about and what we can do about it. The result is a reshuffled map of risk: heavier rain and flooding in some regions, drought in others, and downstream pressure on food production, water supplies, energy systems, and public health. These are tilts in the odds, not certainties — which is precisely what makes them useful for planning. At the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, that’s the part we care about most. A seasonal forecast doesn’t tell us exactly what will happen, but it tells us enough to act early — to stress-test water and agriculture plans, position health and emergency resources, and make decisions before conditions force our hand rather than after. To track how this event unfolds, these regularly updated sources are worth following: Columbia University — IRI ENSO Forecast: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Columbia University — IRI ENSO Resources Hub: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/ NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml NOAA Climate.gov — ENSO Blog: https://www.climate.gov/enso World Meteorological Organization — El Niño/La Niña Updates: https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina Watch the briefing, then keep an eye on the forecasts. The advantage is in acting early. Jeff Schlegelmilch, MPH MBA Faculty Director, National Center for Disaster Preparedness Associate Professor for Professional Practice in Climate, Columbia Climate School Andrew J. Kruczkiewicz Senior Staff Associate II, Faculty Lecturer Climate Change
