Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections …

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 ReportChapter 5: Public Health Impacts and Resiliency

Recent experience from Hurricane Sandy and high temperature episodes has clearly demonstrated that the health of New Yorkers can be compromised by extreme coastal storms and heat events. Health impacts that can result from exposure to extreme weather events include direct loss of life, increases in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and compromised mental health. Other …

Heat and Mortality in New York City Since the Beginning of the 20th Century

Background: Heat is recognized as one of the deadliest weather-related phenomena. Although the impact of high temperatures on mortality has been a subject of extensive research, few previous studies have assessed the impact of population adaptation to heat. Methods: We examined adaptation patterns by analyzing daily temperature and mortality data spanning more than a century …

Temporal Variation in Heat–Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study

Background: Recent investigations have reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades. However, these studies are frequently based on modeling approaches that do not fully characterize the complex temperature–mortality relationship, and are limited to single cities or countries. Objectives: We assessed the temporal variation in heat–mortality associations in a multi-country data …

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and …

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of …